TANMOY MADBAR // COUNTRY RISK
ANALYST DESK, OPEN FOR REVIEW

Reading sovereign risk
where markets meet geopolitics.

I build structured, source-graded research on how security, sanctions, and regulatory risk move through APAC financial hubs. It's the same discipline I bring to capital risk reporting by day, applied to the questions I find most interesting.

See the research → Get in touch
Current Role
Risk Management Reporting Analyst, Citi
Focus
Sovereign and country risk, APAC
Grounded In
Political science, Japanese studies, business analytics
01 · Analyst Profile

About

I work in Risk Management Reporting at Citi, where I own the Capital Based Stress Loss Atlas end to end and sit adjacent to the Country Risk team, translating stress scenarios into numbers that hold up under scrutiny.

Outside of that mandate, my research interest is the same problem from a different angle: how do security risk, sanctions regimes, and financial crime exposure actually move through a country's economy and its trading partners? That question traces back to undergraduate work on North Korean nuclear dynamics, time spent in Singapore, and a minor in Japanese studies. It's what this site exists to document.

Each project here is built the way I'd want a real risk brief built: sources graded by reliability, claims traced to evidence, and speculation kept out of the write-up.

  • Sovereign and Country Risk Stress scenarios, capital impact, cross-border exposure
  • Sanctions and Financial Crime UN, OFAC, and MAS frameworks; illicit finance channels
  • APAC Security DPRK proliferation risk, regional diplomatic posture
02 · Recent Work

Spotlight

1 published, more in progress

This is an ongoing body of work, not a single project. The most recently published case file opens below, and more will land here as research wraps.

CASE 002

DPRK Cyber-Enabled Illicit Finance Tracker

In research
CASE 003

Comparative Risk: APAC Financial Hubs

Queued
CASE NO. 001 · OSINT RISK MAPPING

DPRK–Singapore Sovereign Risk Assessment

Source-Verified
A structured OSINT framework tracing how DPRK nuclear and missile activity, the UN, US, and Singapore sanctions architecture, and DPRK-linked illicit finance create indirect but real exposure for Singapore as an APAC trade and financial hub. Built from 46 sources across five risk buckets, each graded for reliability before being allowed into the brief.
Sources by Bucket
APAC NEWS / ANALYSIS
13
DPRK SECURITY
10
SANCTIONS / FIN. CRIME
9
MACRO / SOVEREIGN DATA
7
SINGAPORE GOV / REG.
7
25
Core sources
16
Useful, context
5
Watchlist, leads
  • IAEA, DPRK Reports
    Official reporting is the strongest baseline for DPRK nuclear safeguards activity.
    TIER 1
  • UN Security Council 1718 Committee
    Global sanctions framework Singapore aligns its domestic law to.
    TIER 1
  • 38 North, Yongbyon Modernization
    Imagery-based reporting on continuing activity at DPRK nuclear infrastructure.
    TIER 2
  • Singapore Customs, DPRK Trade Controls
    Direct trade-hub exposure: prohibited exports, transshipment, and transit rules.
    TIER 1
  • MAS, Targeted Financial Sanctions
    How Singapore's financial sector implements UN sanctions screening.
    TIER 1
  • FBI, DPRK IT Worker Fraud
    Non-military DPRK revenue channel relevant to bank compliance teams.
    TIER 1
  • NK News, DPRK Crypto Crime, 2026
    Current lead on crypto-enabled illicit finance, held for verification against official sources.
    TIER 3
03 · Queued

Pipeline

3 in queue
CASE 002

DPRK Cyber-Enabled Illicit Finance Tracker

Following the IT-worker fraud and crypto-theft thread from Case 001 into a standalone tracker of DPRK cyber revenue schemes and the compliance patterns they leave behind.

Research
CASE 003

Comparative Sovereign Risk: APAC Financial Hubs

Extending the Singapore framework to Hong Kong and Tokyo, using the same bucket methodology, built for direct cross-hub comparison.

Queued
CASE 004

Southeast Asia Capital Flows Dashboard

A lightweight live dashboard tracking macro and capital-flow indicators across ASEAN economies, built on official statistical sources.

Queued